The first issue of the Moneymaker Football Newsletter will be out 9-2-10. This will include the RETURNEE CHART AND RETURNEE PLAYS along with College Write Ups, College Power Ratings and College FOM Line Chart.

FOM SPORTS UPDATE

Just thought we would give you a recap on last year’s Newsletter and Game Selection results.

MONEYMAKER NEWSLETTER / GAME SELECTIONS

For the last 3 years, Frank has done an incredible job with the College & Pro Power Numbers, they are second to none. He also provides Scheduling Strength, Due Factors and Power Totals. To check out how he did last year, click on the link below and you can see the results.

Frank’s 2009 Wrap Up

Jim contributes his DOL Chart each year so click on the link below for the wrap up on his chart.

Jim’s 2009 DOL Wrap Up

Mike is mainly responsible for the NFL Write Ups in the NEwsletter and the College & Pro Game Selections. He has been incredibly good in the NFL.
2007
NFL Game Selections: 112-90
NFL Moneymaker Write Ups: 65-43

2008
NFL Game Selections: 104-77
NFL Moneymaker Write Ups: 35-22

2009
NFL Game Selections: 57-46
NFL Moneymaker Write Ups: 33-19

To view a sample of last year’s Newsletter, click on the link below.

MONEYMAKER NEWSLETTER SAMPLE

Of course, all 3 guys are dependent on each other’s information to make this all work. We feel we have a Handicappers Newsletter. So if you are looking for a supplement to handicapping information, sign up for the Moneymaker Football Newsletter.

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Mike Lee’s TOP TEN Menu for Beating College Football

Using Power Ratings as a Handicapping Tool.

Read Mike Lee’s thoughts on being a successful handicapper

View a list of Handicapping Books by noted handicapper, Mike Lee.

Check out a sample of our Moneymaker Football Newsletter

An arsenal of handicapping information, from Write Ups to the most powerful Power Ratings in the business plus Ranking & Match Up Stats in schedule match up form makes it easy to compare teams, Due Factors, Totals, our FOM Line on every game plus the DOL Chart.

Using returning starters in college football during the early season is no big secret anymore. The professionals, the recreational players and especially the lines maker are all aware of the impact of returning starters during the first 4 to 5 weeks of the college football season. The lines makers have done a pretty good job in recent years in adjusting for the fact that professionals and amateurs alike are looking to bet on teams that are returning many starters and against teams returning only a handful of starters. In other words, the man, meaning the lines maker, has taken away most of the edge for the general betting public.

The professional handicapper however is a much different beast. The general public is basically a group of handicappers who are lazy and want to try and make a quick buck with very little effort. The professional will do the extra work involved and put in the necessary study and research time that keeps him one step ahead of the masses. It is this determination and commitment that allows him to find value plays which in turn translates to profits.

In dealing with returning starters you must dig a little deeper than just how many starters are or are not returning. If a team that was terrible last year is returning all their starters. I’m sure it wouldn’t take much thought to realize that this information is meaningless. It reminds me of a joke that Bill Cosby told at one time concerning the use of cocaine. “Cocaine intensifies your personality, ok, but what if you’re an asshole!” The late Mike Lee has been advocating for years that one should look to bet on a team that is returning at least 14 starters from last season. Further, they must have at least 5 more returnees than the team they are playing, Lastly; the team they are playing must not have more than 12 returnees. Also, a few years back, Mike did some research and came up with some other positive factors concerning returning starters. He determined that a team returning 5 more starters this year, than they had from the previous year, were a profitable betting proposition. Conversely, a team returning 5 less starters this year as opposed to the previous season were good go against team. Finally Mike discovered that teams returning 16 or more starters this year were solid bets, while teams returning 10 or less starters this year were solid go against teams. I can tell you that these tendencies still hold true today and I use them as a first step basis in finding potential plays during the first 3rd of the college football season.

I will now provide you with a step-by-step approach that should get you off to a fast start at the beginning of the college football betting season. The first thing I do in the summer is prepare an informational chart for all division 1 A college football teams.

The headings are as follows. An example is taken from the 2004 college football season.

TEAM 2004 2003 DIFF QB O LINE LB +CB

_____ ____ ____ ____ ___ ______ _____

Troy St. 17 10 +7 Yes 5 4

A quick explanation of the columns is in order:

Team: This is simply the name of the team that you will be providing the information for.

2004: This is the number of returning starters for the upcoming season.

2003: This is the number of returning starters from the previous season

DIFF: This is difference in returning starters between this season and the previous season.

QB: This is simply weather or not last years starting QB is returning this year.

O LINE: This is how many offensive linemen are returning this season

( RT, RG, C, LG, LT)

LB + CB: This how many defensive linebackers cornerbacks that are returning this season.

This information is available in the chart provided.

You may now proceed with the actual handicapping of the individual games. One bonus to using this method in the early season is that you can handicap the games weeks in advance since this is the only strategy you will be using early on. That is not to say that a seasoned handicapper won’t be able to find a few other spots here and there during the early going but for you beginners that will only come from experience and keeping good notes and records from year to year.

Okay here we go. The first thing you need is a schedule of all the games. I use the official offshore rotation schedule book. You may purchase these for a very minimal fee or if you have even dabbled just a little into the handicapping field I’m sure your mailbox is stuffed with free schedules from different offshore betting outlets. Once you have the games laid out in front of you it is now time to go through the games and check off the teams that qualify under the strategies listed above. You will give each team a check mark for every scenario that they qualify under. If it is a negative scenario you will give the check mark to its opponent. Lets review the 5 scenarios we are looking for.

POSITIVE SCENARIOS

1. Any team returning 14 or more starters vs. a team with 5 fewer starters. Also, this team may not have more than 12 returning starters themselves.
2. Any team returning 5 more starters this year than they returned the previous year.
3. Any team returning 16 or more starters this season.

NEGATIVE SCENARIOS

1. Any team returning 5 less starters than they returned the previous year.
2. Any team returning 10 or less starters this season.

Once this process is finished you will rate the teams according to how many check marks they received. For instance if as an example Notre Dame was playing Nebraska and Notre Dame had 2 positive checks and Nebraska has 1 positive check then for that game Notre Dame would be rated +1. If Nebraska had 1 negative check then Notre Dame would be rated as a +3. You will then eliminate from consideration all +1 teams. It is just too small of an edge. Only +2 teams or higher are considered as a possible play. For these teams to become a play the following other factors must be present.

TO QUALIFY AS A PLAY

1. They must have their starting quarterback returning from last season.
2. They must have one the following:
1. At least 4 returning offensive linemen or
2. At least 4 returning cornerbacks and linebackers combined
3. Any team meeting these requirements and is rated +2 or higher becomes a play only if the line is –3 or less and naturally if they are an underdog.

My long-term records show that you can expect a solid 55- 60% win rate for this strategy. Please remember that the attached chart was compiled in July. The serious bettor is always keeping with what is going on. If you read that a starting player has been removed from the team for whatever reason you will then need to make the proper adjustments on the chart. The current chart already reflects the 4 players that were kicked off the Minnesota team for the 2007 season.

By Mike Lee

(This article was written during the 2004 Baseball season)

10.CHART EACH TEAM’S ACE RELIEVER

This factor did not rank higher due to the fact that I think you can be a winning bettor without it. By charting the days when the ace is used, you can INCREASE your winning percentage in the long run. If he was used the day before, the team gets a minus. If he rested, give the team a plus. It is a rare situation in which you’ll see the star reliever used 2 days in succession.

9. LOOK OUT FOR REVENGE SERIES

Not as important as revenge games in football and basketball but at times, GOOD TEAMS can gain revenge in baseball when getting swept or losijng 3 of 4, 2 of 3 etc. Be especially alert to a top notch pitcher who lost a tight, well pitched game and then comes back to face the same pitcher that beat him.

8.PLAY MORE FAVORITES THAN DOGS

This one could be very controversial! Sure, there are some of you who are primarily dog betors and some who play just favorites but I’ve learned one thing over the years. If you play approximately 40% dogs (even to +1.40 on the average) and 60% favorites (-2.00 on occasions but on the average, -1.25 to -1.40), you’ll have more winning seasons in the long run. There are some seasons that are favorite biased to a certain extent. An all underdog player can really get hurt during those times.

7. FOLLOW STARTING PITCHER CURRENT FORM

Chart each starting pitcher’s last 2 or 3 efforts. Look for pitchers rounding into or going out of form. A pitcher is like a thoroughbred. His form comes and goes in cycles. One of your best situations here is to catch a good hurler coming off a well pitched game after one or two bad outings.

6. FOLLOW TEAM STREAKS

A slightly overused handicapping factor but still one that can point you in the right directions based on current form. In April and early May, you can cash a lot of winners based on UNDERDOGS that are on winning streaks

5. CHART STARTING PITCHER ERA BASED ON HOME-AWAY

Notice that is is not overall ERA but rather HOME-AWAY ERA. Some pitchers are like night and day, home and away.

4. CHART RUNS PER GAME, HOME-AWAY AND VERSUS LEFTY-RIGHTY

Each team has a certain offensive personality based on the runs it gets not only at home and on the road, against righties and lefties. Know your stats!

3. HAVE A BANKROLL

Money management can’t be emphasized enough and might be ranked #1 by many of you. Bet more when winning and less when losing.

2. BET MOSTLY WINNING TEAMS

This factor could be ranked #1. All you have to do is look at your daily newspaper to track the teams that play 50% ball or better. By playing these teams (when other factors warrant a selection), you will have far more winning streaks and far less losing streaks! Note: It is tough to have a feel for these 50% teams in early April.

1. MAKE YOUR OWN LINE

Why is this important? In order to make your own line, you need to know all of the above factors. By using stats such as runs per game (lefty-righty, home-away), you are looking at offense. Stats such as starting pitcher ERA home-away give you a good feel for team defense. Let’s not forget starting pitcher current form, ace reliever availability and team streaks. When you have all of these stat-factors at your disposal, you can make your own HANDICAPPING LINE. By comparing this to the Vegas Line,or wherever you happen to get your line, you’ll have a good feel of knowing when to play and when to pass.

POWER + STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Frank Sculco

This may seem like a strange time to write this article with the season just about over. There are two very good reasons to get into it now. The first is that our bowl selection chart, which I put out as part of the update page will be in the same format that the college matchups have appeared. Each team will have their power ratings listed along with a “strength of schedule” rating for each game. 1. Find the difference between the power numbers. 2. Add the strength of schedule rating to appropriate side. You will now have a projected mathematical rating for all games (this projected number will already be calculated and will appear on the bowl chart). Over the past 2 seasons these ratings have pointed to the eventual spread winner to the tune of 43-19 (2007 21-8 and 2008 22-11) 69.4%. It really wouldn’t be realistic to expect this torrid percentage to continue but I do expect another solid bowl season.

Most of the articles that appear in the newsletter are geared toward the self handicapper. What I am trying to do is provide information that could help anyone that aspires to do their own handicapping. So this is the second reason for getting into this information at such a late date.

We have been tracking the results on the update page as far as the use of the power numbers in conjunction with the strength of schedule ratings in various categories. I will go into a little more detail here so you get a feel for how those results were achieved. As always in college football I track results in the (All) points-spread ranges, the 9.5 or less range and the PK to 3.0 range.

SS ADDED TO POWER NUMBER’S/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE

This simply means you are adding the difference between the power numbers to the strength of schedule rating. You are then looking for a 3 point or more difference between your personal spread numbers as compared to the actual betting line.

SS + POWER NUMBER’S BOTH INDEPENDANTELY SHOW 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE

Same calculation as above only this time you are also checking to see if the power numbers show a 3 point differential independently, without the strength of schedule rating added in. In other words the game should show a 3 point differential as compared to the point-spread before and after the strength of schedule ratings are added in.

TEAMS WITH 4 POINT OR HIGHER SS RATINTG WITH NO OTHER REQUIREMENT

Team must have a least a 4 point or higher strength of schedule rating over its opponent with no other calculation required.

POWER NUMBERS, POWER NUMBERS ADDED TO SS, 4PT OR HIGHER SS DIFFERENCE -ALL AGREE
(TAM ala Mike lee)

The above 3 criteria all point to the same side.

Mike Lee was of the opinion that the most effective time to bring strength of schedule into the handicapping puzzle was during weeks 6 through 11 during the regular season and then again during the bowl games. If you have been with us the last two seasons, as stated above, you already know how effective this form of handicapping can be during bowl season. Below are the results from 2009 for weeks six through eleven.

SS ADDED TO POWER NUMBER’S/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 120-80 60.2% All Games 66-43 60.6% All Games 19-12 61.3%
Underdogs 52-31 62.7% Underdogs 31-16 66.9% Underdogs 11-6 64.7%

SS + POWER NUMBER’S BOTH INDEPENDANTELY/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 74-43 63.6% All Games 43-23 65.2% All Games 15-8 65.2%
Underdogs 38-21 64.4% Underdogs 23-9 71.9% Underdogs 9-4 69.2%

TEAMS WITH 4 POINT OR HIGHER SS RATINTG WITH NO OTHER REQUIREMENT:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 78-60 56.5% All Games 44-34 56.4% All Games 13-11 54.2%
Underdogs 29-21 58.0% Underdogs 20-12 62.5% Underdog 10-6 62.5%

POWER NUMBERS, POWER NUMBERS ADDED TO SS, 4PT OR HIGHER SS DIFFERENCE- ALL AGREE
(TAM ala Mike lee)
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 31-21 59.6% All Games 18-11 62.1% All Games 4-5 44.4%
Underdogs 12-7 63.2% Underdogs 9-4 69.2% Underdog 4-3 57.1%

F O M Sports, (Friends of Mike Lee), was formed 4 years ago following the death of our friend and noted handicapper, Mike Lee. A few friends who shared his handicapping style and were in constant touch with him throughout the years joined together to provide handicapping insights and information based on Mike’s pioneering work.

We have continued the well known Moneymaker Football Newsletter
which offers an arsenal of handicapping information, from Write Ups to the most powerful Power Ratings in the business plus Ranking & Match Up Stats in schedule match up form makes it easy to compare teams, Due Factors, Totals, our FOM Line on every game and the DOL Chart. Our handicappers have taken the works of Mike Lee, fine tuned and tweaked them to fit the changing game and are providing some of the best information out there.

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