Using returning starters in college football during the early season is no big secret anymore. The professionals, the recreational players and especially the lines maker are all aware of the impact of returning starters during the first 4 to 5 weeks of the college football season. The lines makers have done a pretty good job in recent years in adjusting for the fact that professionals and amateurs alike are looking to bet on teams that are returning many starters and against teams returning only a handful of starters. In other words, the man, meaning the lines maker, has taken away most of the edge for the general betting public.
The professional handicapper however is a much different beast. The general public is basically a group of handicappers who are lazy and want to try and make a quick buck with very little effort. The professional will do the extra work involved and put in the necessary study and research time that keeps him one step ahead of the masses. It is this determination and commitment that allows him to find value plays which in turn translates to profits.
In dealing with returning starters you must dig a little deeper than just how many starters are or are not returning. If a team that was terrible last year is returning all their starters. I’m sure it wouldn’t take much thought to realize that this information is meaningless. It reminds me of a joke that Bill Cosby told at one time concerning the use of cocaine. “Cocaine intensifies your personality, ok, but what if you’re an asshole!” The late Mike Lee has been advocating for years that one should look to bet on a team that is returning at least 14 starters from last season. Further, they must have at least 5 more returnees than the team they are playing, Lastly; the team they are playing must not have more than 12 returnees. Also, a few years back, Mike did some research and came up with some other positive factors concerning returning starters. He determined that a team returning 5 more starters this year, than they had from the previous year, were a profitable betting proposition. Conversely, a team returning 5 less starters this year as opposed to the previous season were good go against team. Finally Mike discovered that teams returning 16 or more starters this year were solid bets, while teams returning 10 or less starters this year were solid go against teams. I can tell you that these tendencies still hold true today and I use them as a first step basis in finding potential plays during the first 3rd of the college football season.
I will now provide you with a step-by-step approach that should get you off to a fast start at the beginning of the college football betting season. The first thing I do in the summer is prepare an informational chart for all division 1 A college football teams.
The headings are as follows. An example is taken from the 2004 college football season.
TEAM 2004 2003 DIFF QB O LINE LB +CB
_____ ____ ____ ____ ___ ______ _____
Troy St. 17 10 +7 Yes 5 4
A quick explanation of the columns is in order:
Team: This is simply the name of the team that you will be providing the information for.
2004: This is the number of returning starters for the upcoming season.
2003: This is the number of returning starters from the previous season
DIFF: This is difference in returning starters between this season and the previous season.
QB: This is simply weather or not last years starting QB is returning this year.
O LINE: This is how many offensive linemen are returning this season
( RT, RG, C, LG, LT)
LB + CB: This how many defensive linebackers cornerbacks that are returning this season.
This information is available in the chart provided.
You may now proceed with the actual handicapping of the individual games. One bonus to using this method in the early season is that you can handicap the games weeks in advance since this is the only strategy you will be using early on. That is not to say that a seasoned handicapper won’t be able to find a few other spots here and there during the early going but for you beginners that will only come from experience and keeping good notes and records from year to year.
Okay here we go. The first thing you need is a schedule of all the games. I use the official offshore rotation schedule book. You may purchase these for a very minimal fee or if you have even dabbled just a little into the handicapping field I’m sure your mailbox is stuffed with free schedules from different offshore betting outlets. Once you have the games laid out in front of you it is now time to go through the games and check off the teams that qualify under the strategies listed above. You will give each team a check mark for every scenario that they qualify under. If it is a negative scenario you will give the check mark to its opponent. Lets review the 5 scenarios we are looking for.
POSITIVE SCENARIOS
1. Any team returning 14 or more starters vs. a team with 5 fewer starters. Also, this team may not have more than 12 returning starters themselves.
2. Any team returning 5 more starters this year than they returned the previous year.
3. Any team returning 16 or more starters this season.
NEGATIVE SCENARIOS
1. Any team returning 5 less starters than they returned the previous year.
2. Any team returning 10 or less starters this season.
Once this process is finished you will rate the teams according to how many check marks they received. For instance if as an example Notre Dame was playing Nebraska and Notre Dame had 2 positive checks and Nebraska has 1 positive check then for that game Notre Dame would be rated +1. If Nebraska had 1 negative check then Notre Dame would be rated as a +3. You will then eliminate from consideration all +1 teams. It is just too small of an edge. Only +2 teams or higher are considered as a possible play. For these teams to become a play the following other factors must be present.
TO QUALIFY AS A PLAY
1. They must have their starting quarterback returning from last season.
2. They must have one the following:
1. At least 4 returning offensive linemen or
2. At least 4 returning cornerbacks and linebackers combined
3. Any team meeting these requirements and is rated +2 or higher becomes a play only if the line is –3 or less and naturally if they are an underdog.
My long-term records show that you can expect a solid 55- 60% win rate for this strategy. Please remember that the attached chart was compiled in July. The serious bettor is always keeping with what is going on. If you read that a starting player has been removed from the team for whatever reason you will then need to make the proper adjustments on the chart. The current chart already reflects the 4 players that were kicked off the Minnesota team for the 2007 season.
