POWER + STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE
Frank Sculco
This may seem like a strange time to write this article with the season just about over. There are two very good reasons to get into it now. The first is that our bowl selection chart, which I put out as part of the update page will be in the same format that the college matchups have appeared. Each team will have their power ratings listed along with a “strength of schedule” rating for each game. 1. Find the difference between the power numbers. 2. Add the strength of schedule rating to appropriate side. You will now have a projected mathematical rating for all games (this projected number will already be calculated and will appear on the bowl chart). Over the past 2 seasons these ratings have pointed to the eventual spread winner to the tune of 43-19 (2007 21-8 and 2008 22-11) 69.4%. It really wouldn’t be realistic to expect this torrid percentage to continue but I do expect another solid bowl season.
Most of the articles that appear in the newsletter are geared toward the self handicapper. What I am trying to do is provide information that could help anyone that aspires to do their own handicapping. So this is the second reason for getting into this information at such a late date.
We have been tracking the results on the update page as far as the use of the power numbers in conjunction with the strength of schedule ratings in various categories. I will go into a little more detail here so you get a feel for how those results were achieved. As always in college football I track results in the (All) points-spread ranges, the 9.5 or less range and the PK to 3.0 range.
SS ADDED TO POWER NUMBER’S/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE
This simply means you are adding the difference between the power numbers to the strength of schedule rating. You are then looking for a 3 point or more difference between your personal spread numbers as compared to the actual betting line.
SS + POWER NUMBER’S BOTH INDEPENDANTELY SHOW 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE
Same calculation as above only this time you are also checking to see if the power numbers show a 3 point differential independently, without the strength of schedule rating added in. In other words the game should show a 3 point differential as compared to the point-spread before and after the strength of schedule ratings are added in.
TEAMS WITH 4 POINT OR HIGHER SS RATINTG WITH NO OTHER REQUIREMENT
Team must have a least a 4 point or higher strength of schedule rating over its opponent with no other calculation required.
POWER NUMBERS, POWER NUMBERS ADDED TO SS, 4PT OR HIGHER SS DIFFERENCE -ALL AGREE
(TAM ala Mike lee)
The above 3 criteria all point to the same side.
Mike Lee was of the opinion that the most effective time to bring strength of schedule into the handicapping puzzle was during weeks 6 through 11 during the regular season and then again during the bowl games. If you have been with us the last two seasons, as stated above, you already know how effective this form of handicapping can be during bowl season. Below are the results from 2009 for weeks six through eleven.
SS ADDED TO POWER NUMBER’S/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 120-80 60.2% All Games 66-43 60.6% All Games 19-12 61.3%
Underdogs 52-31 62.7% Underdogs 31-16 66.9% Underdogs 11-6 64.7%
SS + POWER NUMBER’S BOTH INDEPENDANTELY/ 3 POINT OVERLAY VS LINE:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 74-43 63.6% All Games 43-23 65.2% All Games 15-8 65.2%
Underdogs 38-21 64.4% Underdogs 23-9 71.9% Underdogs 9-4 69.2%
TEAMS WITH 4 POINT OR HIGHER SS RATINTG WITH NO OTHER REQUIREMENT:
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 78-60 56.5% All Games 44-34 56.4% All Games 13-11 54.2%
Underdogs 29-21 58.0% Underdogs 20-12 62.5% Underdog 10-6 62.5%
POWER NUMBERS, POWER NUMBERS ADDED TO SS, 4PT OR HIGHER SS DIFFERENCE- ALL AGREE
(TAM ala Mike lee)
ALL SPREAD RANGES PK TO 9.5 PK TO 3.0
All Games 31-21 59.6% All Games 18-11 62.1% All Games 4-5 44.4%
Underdogs 12-7 63.2% Underdogs 9-4 69.2% Underdog 4-3 57.1%
